Weekly Update from RLA Tax and Wealth Advisory

By:  Dennis Tubbergen

Is the Silver Market on the Verge of Another Big Up Move?

         Silver has been a top-performing asset over the past 18 months despite the monster decline that occurred on January 30.  One and a half years ago, the spot price of silver was under $30 per ounce.  Silver spot presently is over 80.  That’s a point-to-point move of more than 170%!

         After a move like that, some consolidation and/or a pullback would be normal.  We’ve seen the pullback, and for the past six weeks, silver has been consolidating; in other words, silver prices have been contained in a trading range.

         Despite the big move over the past year and a half, there are a lot of conditions that have me forecasting another big move in silver prices sometime soon (likely this year in my view).

         One of those conditions is the increasing demand for physical silver delivery on the Comex.  Traditionally, Comex traders have taken cash to settle their contracts, but now, especially in the case of silver, that has dramatically changed.

         As I have previously discussed in this weekly publication, there are about 80 million ounces of silver in Comex inventories.  That means there are 80 million silver ounces ‘on hand’ and available to deliver to traders to settle their contracts.

         According to an article penned by Matthew Piepenburg (Source:  https://vongreyerz.gold/silvers-endgame-almost-too-obvious), which I would strongly encourage you to read, there is now delivery demand for silver of 570 million ounces.  That alone would likely be enough to fuel another leg up in silver, but Piepenburg also looks at the larger silver market, which includes ETF (exchange-traded fund) silver and derivative (options, etc.) claims.  When the larger silver market is considered, the ratio of paper claims to actual physical silver available is 350:1.

         Bottom line:  there simply isn’t enough physical silver to back paper silver promises, if enough investors demand physical silver.

Voting with Their Feet

         In last week’s “Portfolio Watch”, I discussed the idea of a ‘billionaire tax’ that is once again being tossed around by some Washington politicians.  As I discussed in last week’s issue, such a tax will never work for many reasons (I provided four of these reasons last week).  One of the biggest reasons is that billionaires will vote with their feet and move to a country that has more favorable taxation rules.

         This week, there is even more evidence that this is the case.  I previously discussed the fact that Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergei Brin have moved both business and personal assets from California to Nevada and Florida.  (Source:  https://luxurylaunches.com/other_stuff/california-to-loose-billions-with-google-co-founders-exit-01132025.php)  Probably not a coincidence that neither state has an income tax.

         The latest billionaire to make the move from a high tax state to a low/no tax state is Starbucks founder, Howard Schultz (Source: https://redstate.com/ben-smith/2026/03/11/washington-passes-99-percent-millionaire-tax-now-starbucks-founder-howard-schultz-is-leaving-seattle-n2200086).  Schultz made the announcement on X, stating, “For those of you who know us well, we have entered the ‘retirement’ phase of our lives.  We have moved to Miami for our next adventure together.  We are enjoying the sunshine of South Florida and its allure to our kids on the East Coast as they raise families of their own.” 

         While Schultz framed the move as a lifestyle choice, it’s interesting that Starbucks corporate is moving much of its administrative operations from Seattle to Nashville, Tennessee, at the same time, the company’s founder is also leaving Washington state.

         The Chief Operating Officer of Starbucks, Mike Grams, made this statement about the corporate move to Tennessee: “... we see Nashville, Tennessee as an ideal location to open an office and establish a more strategic presence in the Southeast region of the United States.” 

         Tennessee state officials were quick to tout the state’s pro-business and relaxed regulatory environment as the reason for the Starbucks move.

         The timing of these moves is even more intriguing when considering a recent tax law change passed in the State of Washington.  Lawmakers in Washington State recently approved a 9.9% tax on incomes over $1 million.  When combined with the top Federal income tax rate of 37%, that means high-income households in Washington would face a combined income tax rate of almost 47%.  Depending on where a taxpayer’s income originates, an additional Medicare tax and/or Net Investment Income tax could also be paid.

         If you are not aware, Tennessee, like Florida and Nevada, has no state income tax.

         Despite overwhelming evidence that wealthy people and high- income earners are voting with their feet in ever-increasing numbers, there are some groups of politicians that continue to push for higher taxes for these groups.

         Case in point, the new Mayor of New York City recently proposed (again) higher taxes for affluent New Yorkers.  Mayor Mamdani recently suggested that state-level lawmakers in Albany reduce the estate tax exemption from the current $7 million to just $750,000.  The mayor also recommended raising the top estate tax rate from 16% to 50%.  (Source:  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mamdani-proposes-massive-estate-tax-exemption-cut-7m-750k-among-other-major-tax-increases)

         In addition to a new estate tax threshold, Mamdani also proposed a millionaire tax on incomes of more than $1 million per year.  He also wants property tax surcharges on homes worth more than $5 million.

         It remains to be seen if any of these proposals will get any traction (my guess is ‘no’) with state lawmakers.

         However, one thing is certain, should New York state legislators follow the mayor’s lead, the New York exodus will intensify.

RLA Radio

         The RLA radio program this week features an interview that I conducted with noted economist Martin Armstrong.

I pick Mr. Armstrong’s brain on the topics of the Iran War, the health of the world economy, and the future direction of US markets.

You can listen to the interview now by clicking on the "Podcast" tab at the top of this page, or find it on your favorite podcast channel.

Quote

“Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.”

                                           -P.J. O’Rourke