Weekly Market Update by Retirement Lifestyle Advocates

Mark My Words – This Will Not Age Well

         This past week, Blackrock, the largest money manager in the world, controlling assets of $11.5 trillion, suggested that investors no longer need to worry about the boom-and-bust cycles that have often plagued investors over the years.

         A “Market Watch” article published last week explained (Source:  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-economy-has-exited-the-boom-and-bust-cycle-blackrock-says-8d8dc389):

BlackRock has said the global economy has exited the cycle of ‘boom and bust’ due to a fundamental shift driven by the emergence of “mega forces,” including artificial intelligence technologies.

In its 2025 Global Outlook, BlackRock said it believes the world economy is currently in the process of being entirely “reshaped” by the emergence of five new “mega forces,” including the shift to net zero carbon emissions, geopolitical fragmentation, demographic trends, digitization of finance and AI.

The fund manager, which controls $11.5 trillion worth of assets, said it now believes this “economic transformation” has seen the global economy break away from “historical trends” that have seen markets go through cycles of boom and bust for centuries.

“Mega forces are reshaping economies and their long-term trajectories – it’s no longer about short-term fluctuations in activity leading to expansion or recession,” BlackRock said in its 2025 Global Outlook.

“2024 has reinforced our view that we are not in a business cycle: AI has been a major market driver, inflation fell without a growth slowdown, and typical recession signals failed,” the asset manager said.

         As a student of economic history, I can tell you that statements like this by seemingly credible people and companies typically precede a market crash.  Case-in-point, Irving Fisher, Yale-educated PhD in economics suggested in early October 1929 (Source:  https://time.com/3207128/stock-market-high-1929/)

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

         Later that month, after stocks had fallen 36%, Dr. Fisher stated that the slide was only temporary.  (Aren’t all slides temporary?). In a way, Fisher was right, twenty-five years later stocks recovered their losses.

         By November of 1929, Fisher has lost his portfolio and his reputation.

         Reminds me of the book, “This Time Is Different” that chronicles statements made by prominent economists prior to a debt crisis.  It’s worth a read to put this recent statement by Blackrock in perspective.

Another Indication That Inflation is Hurting the Middle Class

         “The Wall Street Journal” ran a story last week examining the average age of cars on the road in the United States.  (Source:  https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-used-cars-age-repairs-c3fe7dca)

         The article stated that there have never been this many light vehicles on the road; there are presently 290 million.  One reason for this is good news: the quality of cars manufactured has improved.  Getting the odometer past 100,000 miles is no longer the exception; it’s now the rule.

         Thirty years ago, the average age of a car on the road was 8.4 years; today it’s 13.6 years.  The average age of a vehicle is remarkable when you think about it.  Part of the reason for the increase in the average age of an automobile is explained when one looks at new car sales.  Prior to COVID, the four-year rolling average of new car sales annually was 17.7 million; today, it’s 15.5 million.

Ron Paul’s Common Sense

         I had the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Paul on the RLA Radio program a few years ago.  In my opinion, Dr. Paul has always been a voice of common sense when it comes to spending and central banking. 

         Dr. Paul’s latest X post radiates even more common sense.  (Source:  https://x.com/RonPaul/status/1865137982434415016)

Here’s an easy one for DOGE!

ELIMINATE foreign aid! It’s taking money from the poor and middle class in the US and giving it to the rich in poor countries - with a cut to the facilitators in between! Americans don’t want their government to borrow more money to spend on foreign aid. Besides, it is the immoral transfer of wealth and is unconstitutional.        

         Paul posted a graphic (that can be seen by following the link above) that illustrates the US Government spends about $9.5 billion annually on foreign, humanitarian aid, more than the next nine, largest contributing countries combined!

Global Food Prices Reach a 19-Month High

         The global benchmark that tracks food prices rose in November and reached its highest level since April 2023.

         Globally, food prices have once again begun to move higher, steadily increasing since the first quarter of this year.

         The Food and Agriculture Organization, which tracks international prices of a basket of foods, found that food prices were up 5.7% from a year ago.  (Source:  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-food-prices-hit-20-month-high-upward-momentum-sparks-fears-stickiness)

Younger Americans Saying ‘No’ to Television

         According to Nielson, Americans aged 65 and older watch more than 40 hours of television per week on average.  At the other end of the spectrum, Americans aged 18 to 34 watch an average of 5 hours of live television and time shifted television per week.

         According to Statista Consumer Insights, 50 percent of 18 to 24-year-old Americans don’t watch television at all, opting instead for digital alternatives.  (Source:  https://www.statista.com/chart/3613/tv-usage-by-american-teens/)

         This week’s RLA radio program features an interview with prolific commentator and author Karl Denninger. Karl and I discuss the probability of success for the Department of Government Efficiency.

         The radio program is posted and available now by clicking on the "Podcast" tab at the top of this page. 

“Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence.”

                                                               -Robert Frost